Where the Smart Money Moves Next: A Clear Read on Today’s Market
by Dan Noma, Easy Street Offers
After six months inching toward a buyer’s market, Phoenix has snapped back to balanced—not because demand spiked, but because over 40% of Q2 listings were canceled. When that much inventory is pulled from the MLS, supply appears tighter even as motivation among sellers quietly rises. Active listings are up double digits year over year, yet prices per square foot remain flat. Days on market have stretched toward 70, and price reductions are climbing.
This is a “terms” market, not a “price” market. Agents and investors who win now are structuring creative offers—trading timing, certainty, and concessions instead of chasing appreciation. Sellers are paying more closing costs, buyers are negotiating repairs, and flexibility is becoming currency.
What’s Moving and Why
The homes selling fastest are move-in ready. Cash-strapped buyers can cover down payments and closing costs but can’t bankroll renovations. For flippers, that means the premium lies in livability on day one—updated kitchens, fresh paint, functional layouts. Listings that sit are almost always overpriced or in need of work.
Rental conditions mirror the resale market: demand is fine, but rents have softenedslightly and concessions are rising. “One month free” simply means a lower effective rate. Landlords should focus on keeping good tenants in place and avoiding turn costs.
The Financing Edge Few Are Using
One major overlooked play is assumable mortgages. Thousands of FHA and VA loans carry sub-5% rates—and yes, investors can assume them. You’ll bring more cash to close, but securing cheap legacy debt is an instant yield boost. In today’s rate climate, assumables may be the single most underutilized advantage available.
Reading the Next Cycle
Large institutional buyers (Invitation Homes, Blackstone, and others) are quiet but not gone. They’re raising fresh capital and waiting for cost of capital to ease. When they re-enter, they’ll buy tight and heavy. For smaller investors, that means now is the time to position ahead of them: targeting cancellations, builder inventory under pressure, early distress, and assumable debt opportunities.
The end of the foreclosure moratorium has also reactivated servicers, and distress pipelines are starting to thaw. Combined with millions of thin-equity FHA borrowers from 2021–2023, there’s a wave of motivated situations forming just below the surface.
How to Underwrite Now
Underwrite forward, not backward. The last 90 days of comps are history; value your exit on where the market may be six months from now. Add carry costs, price conservatively, and plan for longer marketing times.
Five Tactical Moves Right Now
Hunt cancellations. Target recently withdrawn listings with a direct-to-seller, terms-first pitch.
Mineassumables. Seek FHA/VA loans with low coupons; structure extra down to secure cheap debt.
Partner on offers. Replace price-cut talks with live investor bids.
Flip to finish. Deliver livability. Turnkey sells.
Defend your yield. Underwrite conservatively and factor rent concessions.
Final takeaway: Use data-driven platforms like Easy Street Offers (azreiadealhub.com) that integrate MLS, off-market, and distressed inventory with institutional-grade underwriting. In a balanced market that rewards precision and creativity, speed plus structure wins.